Investment Analysis, June 26, 2021
This video is in the German language, but English subtitles are available: How to enable captions in English?
Welcome! Because you are from very different Investor classes, so during this Investment Analysis, I’ll discuss some basics today. Hence, some basic thoughts about investing. When investing, we are making money or losing money. And yes, with the number of trades you do, by buying or selling of stocks, or ETFs, or any other assets, if one is more than 50% correct, one earns money in the long run, if one is wrong in more than 50% o the trades, one loses. At least, one could think about it that way.
In practice, however, you have to be well over 50% correct with your trading decisions. Because every trade creates fees, and these costs are often hidden and sometimes pretty high. And you don’t realize them that way for every transaction.
I initially started investing with the Sparkasse or the Raiffeisenbank. That was my first depot in which I executed my few trades. Then I realized that they charged me 25 € for every purchase and sale!
So if I bought some stocks for 1000 €, then were 2.5 % gone and when it sold again, another 2.5 % So, I had to make 5% profit with my purchase and sale to break even. Have I now miscalculated? 25 euros out of 1,000 €. No, that is correct: 2.5 %, that means the roundtrip costs 5% in fees!
This chart shows very beautifully the easiest way to earn money on the stock market: Invest in stocks or an ETF and keep the money invested for a long time. I’ll explain in a moment what an ETF is.
Because, in the long term, the markets are always going up. As you can see now, they go up and down in between this bandwidth. I have drawn a band like this. Within this range, it is continuously increasing in the long term. It exceeds the upper and lower limit of the bandwidth at times. Here we see the beginning of the Corona crisis. And here, this is after the announcement of vaccine availability. That created a euphoria. Then it broke out of this band upwards, which has now corrected downwards again.
Because there is a second and third wave, and because some say the vaccines are not as effective as expected.
Still, it went back now and is growing again. And frequently, after setback, the previous lower bottom edge of this the bandwidth becomes the new upper limit, the top edge on along it grows, but the upward trend remains.
What is this chart, which I have here?
Investment Analysis For Emerging Markets E-commerce
It is a chart of developing and emerging markets and an ETF, matching an index for emerging and developing countries, specifically with the Internet and e-commerce. I picked this e-commerce ETF because this market is easy to understand at the moment, which is super lovely!
You don’t have to think about it for a long time. Due to the lockdowns, almost all businesses have only seen one chance: We now have to sell online! As a result, internet activities, internet infrastructure, and online sales in the last 1.5 years have developed worldwide so enormously that this could be a bubble. And it will likely burst once the lockdowns are all lifted. But I do not share this expectation. It will probably correct again below the values that we got to see here below these peak values.
But the infrastructure improvements, especially in developing countries, have not been that far. At least that’s what the western world believes.
But when I look at this from Asia and notice what happened in Germany about the Internet: You still have shitty expensive Internet providers. I don’t think they have significantly improved the speed with which you access the internet or regional coverage.
And all the Corinthians have managed is to put a cookie warning on every page. No one cares about this kind of thing here in Asia. There is no such thing. You don’t get any alerts if you open a website. What bloody nonsense!
But here, the infrastructure measures and nicest and expansion and internet speeds have improved a lot because all the pupils and students here are getting taught online.
It developed into an affinity for online shopping. That will not be rolled back, even if the lockdowns will be ended, and will undoubtedly happen.
People will continue shopping online to a much, much larger extent than was the case before Corona. So let’s have to take a closer look in detail.
An ETF replicates an index, e.g., The DAX, the German stock index, the TecDax technical stock index, or its American counterpart, the NASDAQ. And for all these indices, there are providers of ETF Exchange Traded for the term does not say much. But, in principle, it forms precisely the content of the index, i.e., in DAX in 30 companies.
So different weighting according to their size and an ETF on the DAX. If precisely one shopping cart replicated your investment in the stocks represented in the DAX and Internet and online trading ETF, it would do that too and form this NDC according to the underground farmers’ market is so easy to understand at the moment and
The long-term prospects are so good and always here on the heartbeat that the very stable, if not intoxicated, rises. But this is a sedative pill in the depot that you can assume. Well, we’ve had this here since 2019, when the euro was the one at the beginning, and now we’re here at € 14, that is, you’ve doubled it in three years, that’s pretty much doubled at three years, always around 24% yes.
So, for example, it should go a little slower in the future. But, still, if you do between 15 and 20% a year, one can’t complain. So 15% is roughly a doubling in, let’s calculate 72 divided by 15, it is about six years with 20%, it will be a little less than four or five years for a doubling. Right?
And the nice thing is, of course, that is much more than in a savings account.
Where you nowadays days for you today, yes colder ETF, I use as a broker.
You are standing desire Dutch discount broker online poker that doesn’t give advice and doesn’t just provide the platform. The platform is kept very simple. Giro has a list of free ETFs, and at the beginning, I said yes, the costs of trading are decisive for success, so if you have a deposit at the Sparkasse or Raiffeisenbank, you have to make a 5% profit to get zero. With desire, it looks like that the trading fees are usually in the per mille range of the capital employed.
Snack, namely the traded volume, i.e., per thousand on the profit, would be nice if it were just that. Still, you do, you buy 1000 € and have 5 € fees, as half a percent and when selling it is another percent of that ok now there is a long list here, and I went through it, and I am happy to share this list with you guys. It has been going through as long as I’ve been through it again, but the ones I’ve looked at are all blue and have a link so that you can view the course at the touch of a button or the system at the push of a button and which I do for myself to trade.
As attractive Found, I put across in front of them for them. And there is now this one on the Italian Börse too. This emerging market Internet and e-commerce was there, and I liked it so much because of its sedative effects because it rises so constantly and monotonously. Still, I’m usually looking for highly volatile values.
There are two classics from there. And one is the oil, and the other sits the gold. And there were wild, huge swings in oil and gold. But the two are developing very well.
Investment Analysis For Gold
Understandable why they react that way? Gold is traditionally mistaken for a security system. and when investors get nervous. Then you buy gold, and when many purchase gold, the price of gold goes up. And when? Investors in height?
Or when do investors get nervous? If you then follow the stock market news a bit, and I just read the headlines. So I Associations Brodhag, I’ll say 5 minutes, and I will read messages to Weg, mainly the headings. In doing so, I think about which note is now left out in the headline to make the news a sensation, so there was a time until about 3-4 months since you read every day. So many new cases, so many recent cases, and so many deaths in the USA and India from in Germany from RKI reports and many new infections.
Chuck flap, but when I read 200,000 coronavirus deaths in India in which period So, the first lie is. It is consistently no time range mentioned. And the second lie is: The absolute number says nothing at all! Because presumably make it clear that there are 1.3 billion indoor, which means they have about four and a half times the United States population. The USA has also claimed who had a hundred thousand deaths through Gerona and whoever could do that now, yes, that sounded good, of course, imagine, that is just dead, the light only when driving 20% of that in the USA.
The astonishing number anyway, this message always has to question. If you then calculate on the other side, i.e., the 200,000, were most likely 1.3 billion Indians within a year. With an average life expectancy of 70 years, let’s calculate with 1.4 billion Indians and a life expectancy of 70 years. That means there will be half a billion Indians a natural death per year. I don’t want to say that 200,000 tinder is worth nothing. I miscalculated, so 1 1 0 less death rate among those who died by looking is in the percentage range, but on the one hand, instead critically question the news because journalists tend to lie by omitting them. But, of course, they do that to save their ass and earn their bread because the lousy information buys better.
But on the other hand, I have to see how this message gets to the general public, and participants react to the button and then develop a feeling for how much panic will break out or not. And that then affects stock market prices, so the news is bad enough with 200,000 changing dead.
Then gold will most likely go up. So developing a gut feeling for this news and the medium-term developments that follow from it is the be-all and end-all of making money with investments. And that’s why the very first rule is if you don’t like someone you don’t understand, if you don’t understand a product, if you don’t understand the psychology behind the product, keep your hands off it.
and in my opinion, that applies to 99% of people about, e.g., On cryptocurrencies, well, I have not yet developed a gut feeling myself as to when why and how cryptocurrencies rise or not, I have also played here and there and invested urge, the bottom line is that I lost a little money with crypto with outstanding, but at least I keep my hands off it now because
I had to learn it please, well, it wasn’t bitter because it was a lot of loss, what I’ve done with it, but at least it’s not before me. It is not transparent for me beyond that, after dealing a little with the crypto market. I was employed is the most expensive currency of the last fees. One can imagine speaking of several percent here, i.e., invested in crypto once and out again, or at Raiffeisenbank Gamlitz, the 5% must have made good first. Zero to zero, well, that’s another reason why pushes such a red cloth if crypto at all then I buy a share from a crypto provider because then I have the low again.
Fees of my desire broker, and that is a high-paying think about it, and he thinks about it all day. Stocks and securities I do differently from ETFs, trading fees and the buying and selling fees are meager, usually in the per mille range.
In the event of a fire where the manager has to be paid or a whole group of those who often take a tape makes, that means you have to have made cents profit around the issue and repurchase rash, and then he also takes an administration fee. So that can too one percent a year an ETF also costs money, but one in the order of magnitude lower typically in the range of 0.1%.
- What are the entire costs?
- Why is it so much cheaper?
It’s just a computer program behind it, it looks at which values are in the bag, how exactly they are weighted, the computer buys that and is somehow paid for you, so the programmer for the computer program was born once, but it’s been going on since then.
It only incurs electricity costs and CPU time. And that’s for sure; many claim that the ETF even performs better on average. Buren on then finally applies, that doesn’t make any sense, thinking about managed thoughts and investing something like that is of course that if you go and should I then put it in my depot and that we have lovely plans here, I would recommend it to you, it is also capable of the savings plan. We can put 50 € for any child on it every month, and you can rely on it for your grandchild. If it does 40 years in which you have invested, you have a 5% issue surcharge initially; you have 1% fees every year.
And in the end, you are afraid if your grandchild sells 5% return if you extrapolate that too complicated for me, that doesn’t work in my head. You have it at the beginning of 40 years times 1% is 40% and 5 % when buying back Sprinterch in bed finds 50% assets, the driver can rip you off, Chris was just as expensive as life insurance costs 50% buren over the years, so also in fraud on the investor, my obvious recommendation would be to invest in ETF and since you choose the free favorite markets in which I invest in.
Have I already spoken a bit about gold? What about oil?
Investment Analysis for Energy And Oil
The oil always rises when your economy is going well, and that is something that you can read very, very simply from the news circle, if you are good at the stock market news and can therefore pay lousy economy if you do the Federal Statistical Office yes his monthly living index and inflation data and stuff and when inflation is high then.
Will the oil price also benefit from this? If the economic data are good, the economic development is good, then this speaks in favor of remaining invested in oil or energy, and I consider these two markets to be easy to understand for almost everyone with the simplest means and completely easy to understand to be a successful trade., you can invest it directly in gold.
And also, for this, the buying-selling costs are often very, very high. And I said this gold and the oil with you are very volatile. Volatility means it has a fluctuation range. High volatility means it has a high tail, so whenever you feel like it will be corrected again soon, take the profits with you, and if it fixes it, then it ran again for the same coal, then you get more gold nuggets from now there is still one.
Interesting story here we now have the price trend of the gold looking for gold, digging up the car and melting the goldilocks and then selling the gold price is high or low, their production costs per kilogram or ton of gold remain pretty much the same. So if the gold price sings in 10% and they had previously had a nose operation masseurs of 30%, they only do it now.
20% profit And that has a massive impact on the belly item, i.e., if the gold price drops and 10% drops, the price of the Gold Bugs ETF dolls fall 20 to 30%, which is about two to three times as volatile as the gold itself.
This is much like a leveraged product as leveraged means that means you buy and share. For 1000 € and then announced I’ll come. Give yourself another 2000 €. In principle, we believe three times the value of what you invest for the 2000 € that you need for it, but of course, it takes apart, these also had to be earned again and so patchers or the other leverage products and just.
In principle, the same stocks but additionally reinforced or crocheted with a loan, you buy one share with your money and build a pile of shit on two claims for you with Uwe Nimzrauche. Goldbach’s PC effect is the same as with a leveraged product, but you buy a cheap ETF without taking out a loan and thus being able to do so like with a crocheted product, we play the game in and out with a much larger amplitude.
If you were to invest directly in gold, we don’t have a cheaper product and generate fewer trading fees. And whenever you look at it on an annual basis. Then we see that you do one thing, tell mom that you should only have upward trends as the one here, once up, once down, that you only take the big cycles up here down here up here down here.
Up here once in between, Selma is down and up; that is, we had five or six prominent up, keepers from this guy for the first year of a year. Let’s paint beer. John a band, so it was out.
Just look at this small excerpt. I have now specially painted it that way. I am not really on the upper limit and the lower limit of Malta if you always have 80/20 of the range in which this value has fluctuated, and the goal is nowhere.
To take the profits within this range and shoot out of here, know within this bed. To reinvest the winnings until he is shot out of here again and then = close the game again, that is Now on, sometimes up here, then let’s add it. at 30
We sold our winners € 30 out of the gold investment window; Bought for 1000 1000 € gold, we are now at 1300 Behavior 333000 are still in there, and we wait until the young distance is touched. We buy directly at 27 and put the 300 back in 27 in 10% less; that is, we now get percentages more for the same 300 three hundred were pinned out here.
Now we are waiting. The exhaust on it now we can go back to the 30th Let’s take the profit out again, and this time we had that down here topped up to 1017 again on it, but we have correspondingly more shares and so on. So we can do it with this lawyer even in a falling market here with the golden yellow, in that we don’t get more in terms of amount. Still, we get more shares, so if we sell this Tracy up here every time we buy it down here sell up buy down here sell up sell down Nahkauf Leoben sell down buy off, then in the end we have.
After this, 44,550 percent more in the depot for the same money and the turnaround that comes sooner or later. bye
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