Investment Analysis, July 4, 2021
This video is in the German language, but English subtitles are available: How to enable captions in English?
Welcome to the second round of investment analysis. I greet you warmly and have stopped the last time at discussing the gold investments. What I still wanted to do the last time, was the analysis of the energy ETF, and its behavior compared to the oil price. I think that I didn’t cover that anymore. That’s why I will talk today about energy ETF and the oil price and how oil and gold correlate. There is an exciting correlation between the two . they mainly run in the opposite direction. If gold rises, the energy price drops, and vice versa. And you can play an enjoyable game with it: The in-out game or the Volatility4Happiness game.
And at the end, I will have to look at the question: When should I invest? When should I buy and when should I sell? Most people think about this question only when they buy a share in the short term and speculate on it in a short time. Can I sell it again with some earnings? Still, the question goes much deeper. It is about the investment strategy, i.e., for the medium-term investment horizon. It goes even deeper about lifelong wealth planning.
Last time we looked into this ETF list, in which I ticked all ETFs worthwhile analyzing. And I shared the list with you. I hope you could access it and open the malt and chart here, for example. Because that is now the oil price over a year and what I do now and look at the oil price development over five years, I see the picture, again and again, alternating peak values.
And minimal values from and always that counts through over five years, then we have 123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17. Let’s calculate with 20 because I skipped a few small ones here. That means we have an average of 4 peaks per year, and four minimal values in-between. That is, on average per year.
If the oil forms every three months and we want to look at the principle from the year Split alternately the third month later or in the three months afterward, we had this one. 234 high at the moment, and then the last time I presented two ETFs, one was the US energy. The other in the US one that now contains not only oil but also alternative energies, which confuses the matter a bit. Nonetheless, it is also very volatile, which means we have a wide range of fluctuations. We now have very typical behavior, i.e., every 24 months, we have to burp alternately.
And therefore, it is very suitable with a large part of the assets to separate the invested and catch up again. We sell ourselves and win and buy gold for it because mainly at the same time when this is high, the gold is low is what we do now. I have the gold ETF here, and I copy the securities identification number out and now go back to the Energie GTS. If I click here, then I can say, look for the Gold Bugs ETF, and around I have to select the one I have to click on here now, even if only one is displayed. So I say add, and if we look at that, then you can do it.
If one is here is a peak, the other one is here near the low. Not essentially on the same day but in the same period. That was April 20th, Hitler’s birthday, if I remember correctly, and this was here.
The next time we had the gold ETF, which is the blue line, no it is the energy ETF, the energy was at a peak. The next day the gold reached a minimum.
Now here, where the two lines touch, the day Energy has a minimum, and the next day the gold was on a drop. The difference is a bit bigger, so we have an energy peak, and a gold drop 1-2 days later.
Then something interesting happened here in the last three days, the two are in the same direction, so be here both are on the rise. And if the two are gold and go in the same order simultaneously, that is mostly an indication of a trend reversal. Another good sign of a turnaround is what we see below. We’ll get you in this chat. Here we always get the volume trading volume displayed. If the trading volume is exceptionally high, this is also an indication that investors have become nervous and nervous. Investors like to change their minds. If they change their minds, we hold off rising noticeably or vice versa, so we have to look in every day. We have to see when investors are nervous about looking around. Today it is good to play along, take profits with you and because you invest in the systems, support the earnings in the scenarios where you are most at the moment – from when you are now.
Only limit our trading universe to gold and oil, then we have to sell energy and buy gold. Well, I’ve already done that, I was a little early, I’ve already been about here, I’m already in, I’ve already shorted energy, so I opened a short position and whenever things went up here and back again in Höchst. I had sold again. I now have almost half of my assets short on oil.
That, of course, helps me be very optimistic that this is the turning point here and that we will then move in this direction and go down to the annual chart. And I’ll make the distraction out of here that we’re just concentrating on the Maggie ETF.
Then we see from here, with Jacob. So we see here. Was the turning point down here so far up about halfway back, then we had the same cycle again, then went up here so far, and then it went around just over half. Here it went so far, and at least I would say the third one back, and now we have started here and have had a relatively steady upward trend. I expect the trend reversal in the next week, and I assume that you get here, so that was three Months went by, and I expect that we will get a setback as far as this region here, that is, the bars.
A23 oh, I’m here in the percentage that irritates me. We want that univalve, So now it must have been up here at 23, and I’m assuming that this will probably be in the order of 9:50 PM. Here we could buy now and 23 to 21 50 in + 10% that is nice and the reverse of the maximum value up to then, that was the last time within 20 days in percent in 20 days of the course, that was energy and gold and in this regard Correlation and entry and exit time points and how you can recognize them, that reversals are pending, let’s briefly discuss the Alibaba share Alibaba has decreased significantly, I would recommend staying in Alibaba, we have long-term with Alibaba.
The following course, and if you look at a shared approach over a long period, especially here, when it rises so sharply, then the Y-axis should not be linear but logarithmic because the development is always dependent on the day before. If a share has already risen by 50%, then you give it in the long term, if I see it in percentage or about the value, it forms a bubble, but that is by simply.
So clearly written is experienced that one of you was already on 150. Now is the next doubling. It’s up here at 300 if I look at this now. If I put that talking in a genius way, the logarithmic display takes the compound interest effect out of me, and if I now paint a line here on the Rhine, where did it move below from where did it move? We were on the uptrend now, and I believe based on what this is like, there has been no bubble with Alibaba because although it linearly looked like this, and here we have now.
The city community is only running less than now. Now we have the downward trend from which we have now broken out of the French future will be seen with Alibaba. And the exciting thing is the slope that has now set in with the first two minus points, which is parallel to the performance from the past five years and, as I said last time, directly after such a setback is frequent. The lower limit is the old upward band, the new upper limit. We can assume that you will fluctuate too much with this range up to the two hundred 200. See you at 180, which means that burns in percent shortly. The line goes out a bit early here, so it’s worth looking at not C200 soon. Still, so I’m very confident. Check it out, and clever little fellow who creates the results you want. The kinetic pro politicians who are mentally inferior to him will not slow down, even if there with AMC, so there must be another big business running against Saturday.
So, I have complete confidence in this person and that his company will come out well. Okay, so then my optimism happened, and that’s why we should stay invested in Alibaba, and I guess we’ll see W204 inside in 2 two months. Probably sooner at the latest.
Two other stocks with which I have made very handsome profits due to their high volatility were fake and solar power. Both are also pleased and have significantly benefited from asking that action against oil for starts and drives for alternative energy.
In the past, Sunpower & M face ran relatively synchronously. Let’s compare the two. We have to open up again from the Vantage view to get the two of them congruent. And we have to choose a period where they both exist, that is, he ruled Date from the beginning of the year.
Yes, and now have always been relatively similar to this one that is developing. But Paul’s development is behind and face at the moment, that is, emphasis Written from here until then and you know we were at the country house on three, and they are now 24. So this is only half, so emphasized from 177 down here.
That was at the time of the election. Since then, Alpha has gone through the roof and almost reached their old highs 154 out of 177. At Sunpower, it was like we had a high of 100, and 1 in 443 are around the time everyone was afraid that Trump would win. He will continue to push oil and put environmental protection back down to 17, and we have just made up half of the land.
That means, then, in my opinion, power is still an excellent entry-level candidate at the moment if you want to and should invest in 1 in stocks. Still, if we look at it now, it is also logarithmic. Dog paint a band around the last upward transform around it is easy to see.
We are at the upper end of the range, and the entry point is not favorable. If the order is again valued here at 21 21 22, then that would be a good entry point because compared to the entrance to solar power, there is still a clear catch-up possibility, the trend reversal is emerging here Not yet due to the small sales box so that that I would wait there. Ok, to get in there, there was another stock that I once recommended or another ETF that I once suggested, and that was here in this downtrend than all of Asia.
The shares of the DAX draw from the Philippines, so you can imagine what that showed, and while the other countries in Asia have caught up, the Philippines was still in the downward trend. I also did a lovely decision meditation. And I would like to tell you briefly about you. It goes like this, I think about how I am going to how should I invest for the next three months to the next three years, and then the doctor comes. The mediation is explained to her, I meet a friend, and he asks me how to invest my money and the next one.
Develop over the next one to three years. Then I lie down and give myself a quarter of an hour and explain to him precisely what is going to happen, that’s the question I asked myself, but if a friend asks me that question, then I have I, of course, have the opportunity to look at that from us and to change perspective. So then comes the divorce mediation, then I look at the same question dragging my life.
And then the third comes, and then I meet a mentor, and this time I met Warren Buffett himself, one of the most successful punters in the world, and then I was here in the Philippines, and he said, ok and then too good. Last comes the decision meditation, and it would then concern the hour of my death; well, I’m lying on my death bed and think about what decision I would have liked to have made in this situation, and that can be very bright and above all, it makes the thought of death to aa perfect friend and advisor ok the link on it I can you guys afterward
sSharewith you guys. If you want, you can give it a try, and Well, then we can also play volatility; well, I just said the long when should I invest. We have just started to say where I can tell from the course of the course that a trend change is imminent and that is just the short-term speculative investing Game of chance, but how can you do this game of chance in such a way that you can win it also these links on this page, here I can tell you that the current age is precisely like the other in English, but here on my website I have it Translator is not perfect German in understandable German if you look at it, but it should be excellent and clear. So, you can look there then.
Read about when and how to play the volatility game. You can think about how you can find a reasonable basis for decision-making with meditation to invest and to determine your investment strategy in the short term to invest in the medium term which stocks I choose. The last time I rode on it for a long time and these are the costs that are particularly important when you trade frequently, so prefer to invest in plants that are from the trading post and also with Frauke, who is as low as possible from the trading post and then pick out the bubbles, how long are the cheapest ones available, so whether I can also trade a share on Xetra.
Or at the Frankfurt parquet exchange, a price difference of about factor 4, that is Frankfurt Stock Exchange costs about four times as much trading fees Xetra Computer Börse Frankfurt Trading costs only half of Xetra. Still, you have a slightly worse tax situation. Taxes are another issue on all profits minus all losses that you make int year; you pay 25% capital gains tax, so at the end of the year, you made an offer of € 1,000, that is to say, Father State 825 tabs for € 250 for me, that everyone is friendly and that also applies to all profits made in the meantime, that is, once I get in and out am then.
Everything on each individual is not only over the total amount at the end of the year, so I pay taxes for every single trade if one has made profits. Of course,e, you can also write off if you have made losses, but we play to win. Therefore there is a possibility to avoid the losses below the year. If you also deposit a legal person, i.e., a GmbH or 1 kg or a stock corporation, the calculation is different for the tax. It only becomes the total amount at the end of the year.
Device calculated and the profits and losses are not extrapolated each time in between, and that can make a significant difference to the end of the year; still, now there is no capital gains tax for guys between people, but of course, you have the corporation tax and trade tax you can now your current GmbH give your data winners write off, and that is a different matter, that is to have a depot in the GmbH. In particular, short-term trading means, then that’s a fancy thing; I also planned to do that, I failed because the German broker
an incredible bare 30 to 660-page application from Rome King Trade. I open a depot now because of the rade. I still have my private depot, and I gave myself the coal from my company as a loan and invest it now is also now semi-patent from the tax burden very unfavorable. Still, I’m that it is; that can also be changed, i.e., if I manage to open a portfolio with a broker, then we play the game the other way round. I give my private assets to my company as earned, and then the company invests the money.
Thank you very much for watching my video, and if you liked it, now is the time to turn your device around, and it looks like this. Okay, that’s a bit funny, but here we have the thumbs up, and I ask you in the video. Office ggivesBonn a Like, and if you like, you can also write in the comment, For example: “I like this video, because … “. You can choose for yourself what you are going to write there …